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Difference between revisions of "Mechanistic Model for Decision Making"

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I will suggest that decision-making has several mental elements that work together to produce a decision. These are the elements:
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I propose that decision-making involves several interconnected mental elements working collaboratively to formulate a decision. These key elements are:
  
 
[[File:CognitiveElements3.png]]
 
[[File:CognitiveElements3.png]]
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==Elements==
 
==Elements==
 
===Need===
 
===Need===
Every decision starts with a [[need]] or needs. Need is a biological process in the brain, signaling that there is a lack of some resources. The resources may be physical resources or emotional resources. From a psychological perspective see [[Maslow's hierarchy of needs]].
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Every decision originates from a biological process, signaling a lack of resources as perceived by the brain. Resources can be physical or emotional, aligning with psychological perspectives such as [[Maslow's hierarchy of needs]].
  
 
===Stakeholders===
 
===Stakeholders===
[[stakeholders]] are the members of the [[organization]] that may be affected by the decision may or non-members that may be affected by the organization's actions.  
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[[stakeholders]] encompass organizational members and external individuals who may be affected by the organization's decisions or actions. Each individual possesses resources to contribute to the group effort to solve the problem. She may or may not contribute some of these resources to the group effort.
  
 
===Question===
 
===Question===
A [[question]] is a mental tool that help gather information and start a decision process, on how to fulfill the need.
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A [[question]] serves as a mental tool to gather information and initiate the decision-making process, addressing how to fulfill the identified need.
  
 
===Options===
 
===Options===
A need can be [[reward|fulfilled]] in many ways. Every way is an “[[option]]”.
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Various ways exist to [[reward|fulfill]] a need, each representing an “[[option]].
  
 
===Mental Objects Network===
 
===Mental Objects Network===
The options are an implementation of theories the brain holds about the world. These theories are connected with each other and describe how the world works and what we can do to change our surroundings. We use these theories to change the surrounding so our needs will be fulfilled. The network of theories is built from mental objects representing of the world, and therefore will be called Mental Objects Network ([[MON]]). For further explanation, see [[epistemology]].
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Options are implementations of the brain's theories about the world, interconnected in a network known as the Mental Objects Network ([[MON]]).
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The MON comprises mental objects representing our understanding of the world, influencing how we shape our surroundings to meet our needs.
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For further explanation, see [[epistemology]].
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===Outcomes===
 
===Outcomes===
For every ‘’[[options|option]]’’ there are outcomes. Some of the [[outcomes]] may fulfill the ‘’[[need]]’’, and some may have side effects.  
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Each [[option]] results in [[outcomes]], some of which fulfill the identified need, while others may have unintended side effects.
  
 
===Resources===
 
===Resources===
Every [[option]] consume some [[resources]]. Therefore, when calculating the values of each option, the resources should also be calculated.
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Every [[option]] consumes [[resources]], necessitating a consideration of available resources when evaluating options.
  
 
===Value===
 
===Value===
The outcomes have an effect on our physical or emotional resources. They carry a [[value]]. The value may be rewarding, neutral or taxing.  The Magnitude of the value can also vary from none to fatal in taxing value or from none to overwhelming good, in positive values.
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Outcomes carry a [[value]], ranging from rewarding to neutral or taxing, affecting our physical or emotional resources.
  
 
===Probability of success===
 
===Probability of success===
Every [[options|option]] has some [[Probability of success|chances to succeed]]. Every option is constructed from a cascade of events, and every event has some probability to happen. It may depend on the known probabilities of an event to happen (for instance we may assume that our chances of winning the lottery have a probability of 1 to a million), or the level of corroboration (the number of times we tested the theory). The more we corroborated the theory we may have more confidence we can predict her chance to occur (from an epistemological perspective we do not have any way to predict the future, bet let’s leave this for now). Consequently, when an option has many steps (events that should occur in order for her to succeed), or/and when the events are not well tested, the probability of success drops.
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Each option has varying[[Probability of success|chances of success]], influenced by the probability of events within the option's cascade.
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Confidence in predicting an event's occurrence may depend on known probabilities or the level of corroboration through testing theories.
  
 
===Resources===
 
===Resources===
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===Evaluation===
 
===Evaluation===
When we have to choose from a set of options, we should [[Evaluation|evaluate]] every option total outcomes values, the resource it demands, and the probability of success.
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When faced with a selection of options, it is important to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the overall outcome benefits, necessary resources, and likelihood of success. Each stakeholder may evaluate the return on investment (ROI) of each option based on their individual needs and resources, which may differ from those of other stakeholders.
  
 
===Selection===
 
===Selection===
We should compare the total value of every [[options]] and [[selection|choose]] the best value. Yet for many reasons we will discuss later, we may not evaluate at all, or choose the option we are more familiar with, even if there are better [[options]]. The selection of an option, is called also [[decision]]
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Optimal decision-making involves comparing the total value of each option and [[selection|choose]] the one with the highest value.
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External factors may influence decision-making, such as familiarity with an option, even if better alternatives exist.
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Selection involves the comparison of available options and selecting the one that provides the best value. However, for various reasons that we will discuss later, we may not evaluate all options or choose the one we are more familiar with, even if there are better options available. The process of selecting an option is also known as making a decision.
  
 
===Action===
 
===Action===
Every selection should be followed by [[action|actions]] designed in the selection phase.
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To improve decision-making, every selection should be followed by actions designed during the selection phase. This will help the group learn from experience and improve their [[SON]].
  
 
===Learning===
 
===Learning===
We learn from hypothesizing and from doing. Learning through the decision process and from the doing is crucial for developing corroborated [[SON]]. corroborated SON is the base for our ability to predict well. The SON is built from theories we are building and testing throughout our entire life. We [[learn]] from others, or we conjecture about how things work. We may then test the theories, and see if they are false or corroborate (see Karl Popper on terminology<ref>Popper, K. (2002). The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Routledge Classics). Routledge. </ref>).
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Learning is a continuous process involving hypothesis formulation and testing.
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Decision-making and practical experiences contribute to the development of a corroborated System of Neural (SON), forming the basis for accurate predictions.
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Learning occurs through personal experiences, testing theories, and considering insights from others. (see Karl Popper on terminology<ref>Popper, K. (2002). The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Routledge Classics). Routledge. </ref>).
 
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Revision as of 01:31, 14 January 2024

I propose that decision-making involves several interconnected mental elements working collaboratively to formulate a decision. These key elements are:

CognitiveElements3.png

Elements

Need

Every decision originates from a biological process, signaling a lack of resources as perceived by the brain. Resources can be physical or emotional, aligning with psychological perspectives such as Maslow's hierarchy of needs.

Stakeholders

stakeholders encompass organizational members and external individuals who may be affected by the organization's decisions or actions. Each individual possesses resources to contribute to the group effort to solve the problem. She may or may not contribute some of these resources to the group effort.

Question

A question serves as a mental tool to gather information and initiate the decision-making process, addressing how to fulfill the identified need.

Options

Various ways exist to fulfill a need, each representing an “option.”

Mental Objects Network

Options are implementations of the brain's theories about the world, interconnected in a network known as the Mental Objects Network (MON). The MON comprises mental objects representing our understanding of the world, influencing how we shape our surroundings to meet our needs. For further explanation, see epistemology.


Outcomes

Each option results in outcomes, some of which fulfill the identified need, while others may have unintended side effects.

Resources

Every option consumes resources, necessitating a consideration of available resources when evaluating options.

Value

Outcomes carry a value, ranging from rewarding to neutral or taxing, affecting our physical or emotional resources.

Probability of success

Each option has varyingchances of success, influenced by the probability of events within the option's cascade. Confidence in predicting an event's occurrence may depend on known probabilities or the level of corroboration through testing theories.

Resources

For every action, which is based on the option we selected, there is a tax on our resources. Before we evaluate options, we should also consider how much resources do we have, and if we have the specific resources needed for the option.

Evaluation

When faced with a selection of options, it is important to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the overall outcome benefits, necessary resources, and likelihood of success. Each stakeholder may evaluate the return on investment (ROI) of each option based on their individual needs and resources, which may differ from those of other stakeholders.

Selection

Optimal decision-making involves comparing the total value of each option and choose the one with the highest value. External factors may influence decision-making, such as familiarity with an option, even if better alternatives exist.

Selection involves the comparison of available options and selecting the one that provides the best value. However, for various reasons that we will discuss later, we may not evaluate all options or choose the one we are more familiar with, even if there are better options available. The process of selecting an option is also known as making a decision.

Action

To improve decision-making, every selection should be followed by actions designed during the selection phase. This will help the group learn from experience and improve their SON.

Learning

Learning is a continuous process involving hypothesis formulation and testing. Decision-making and practical experiences contribute to the development of a corroborated System of Neural (SON), forming the basis for accurate predictions. Learning occurs through personal experiences, testing theories, and considering insights from others. (see Karl Popper on terminology[1]).

See also

optimized decision making

Next: Neuropsychology elements in decision making

References

  1. Popper, K. (2002). The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Routledge Classics). Routledge.